The Agricultural and Livestock Service (SAG) has launched a health surveillance operation in the Río Cruces Nature Sanctuary following the detection of the H5N1 virus in a black-necked swan. The measure aims to contain the spread of the disease within the area.
The National Forest Corporation (Conaf) has implemented preventive protocols to mitigate the risk of new cases within the ecosystem. Authorities have urged the public to avoid all contact with wild birds to reduce the risk of infection.
Climate Uncertainty Looms with El Niño
Alongside the health alert, local meteorologists are warning of a potential El Niño event with extreme characteristics for the winter of 2026. Meteorologist Jaime Leyton noted that warming in the Pacific could exceed a one-degree thermal anomaly threshold, which historically leads to increased rainfall in central Chile.
Under this projection, Santiago could see up to 60% more precipitation during the June-to-August quarter. However, this figure is based on analogies with previous events and does not constitute a definitive official forecast.
International agencies are maintaining a more cautious stance regarding the intensity of the phenomenon. The NOAA/CPC reported that current conditions remain in a neutral ENSO state, though they project that El Niño could emerge between May and July with a 62% probability.
Meanwhile, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has recognized a consistent warming signal and models suggesting a strong phenomenon starting in June. However, the WMO warned of the inherent uncertainty caused by the current climate predictability barrier.
Recent studies indicate that the relationship between El Niño and rainfall in central Chile has lost its linearity. Factors such as the ongoing megadrought and climate change are altering precipitation patterns, meaning a thermally strong phenomenon does not automatically guarantee an extraordinary winter.
