A New Strategic Alignment
The ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has reached a critical juncture, with recent reports indicating that Saudi Arabia may be prepared to invoke a significant mutual defence agreement with Pakistan. Salman al-Ansari, a prominent Saudi geopolitical researcher, recently told Canada’s CBC News that should Riyadh decide to fully engage in the war, it would rely on its bilateral ties with Islamabad to alter the regional balance of power.
Central to this assertion is the potential for Pakistan to extend its nuclear deterrent to the Kingdom. "We can say it literally that there is a nuclear umbrella over Saudi Arabia," al-Ansari stated, suggesting that the South Asian nation’s nuclear arsenal could become a pivotal factor in Riyadh’s defensive strategy against Tehran.
The Anatomy of the Defence Pact
The agreement, signed between the two nations last year following an Israeli strike on Hamas negotiators in Doha, functions similarly to NATO’s Article 5. According to official government statements, the pact is predicated on the principle that any act of aggression against one signatory is considered an attack on both. While the exact operational scope remains subject to interpretation, the language suggests a commitment to collective security that could draw Pakistan directly into the fray if Saudi territory faces sustained hostility.
Saudi Arabia has already experienced the brunt of regional volatility, having been targeted by Iranian ballistic missiles and drone strikes. These attacks have hit critical infrastructure, including the Prince Sultan Air Base and energy facilities, further complicating the Kingdom’s delicate position as it balances its security requirements against the risk of regional escalation.
Diplomatic Tightrope and Economic Realities
While Saudi officials previously lobbied the United States to avoid a direct war with Iran, the intensification of hostilities has prompted a shift in discourse. The debate in Riyadh now centers on the extent to which the Kingdom should support offensive operations alongside the U.S. or enter the conflict directly.
Pakistan, meanwhile, finds itself in a precarious diplomatic position. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar recently confirmed that he had communicated the existence of the defence pact to his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi. While Islamabad has sought to mediate the crisis—with Tehran demanding assurances that Saudi soil not be used as a launchpad for attacks—Pakistan’s reliance on Gulf energy imports adds a layer of economic necessity to its strategic commitments.
Recent maritime activity underscores this interdependence. The Pakistani-flagged vesselKarachirecently transited the Strait of Hormuz carrying UAE-sourced crude, a move analysts believe was only possible through direct negotiations between Islamabad and Tehran. As the war continues to strain global energy supplies and regional stability, the activation of the Saudi-Pakistan pact stands as a stark reminder of how quickly local conflicts can expand into broader, more dangerous international confrontations.