The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) remains optimistic about the year-end outlook, projecting economic growth between 1.8 and 2.8 percent, with a midpoint of 2.3 percent, according to elfinanciero.com.mx.
Édgar Amador, head of the ministry, attributed this resilience to factors such as a robust labor market, rising wages, and the impact of direct social transfers. In a video message addressed to the 15th Issuers Forum of the Mexican Stock Exchange, the official highlighted that domestic consumption remains a key driver of national economic activity.
Beyond consumption, the SHCP is banking on a gradual revival of both private and public investment. Amador emphasized that the external sector remains dynamic, bolstered by Mexico's tariff advantages with the United States and the benefits of the USMCA trade agreement.
"The key moving forward will be to strengthen the connection between savings and productive investment, because the economies that manage to grow sustainably are not just those that produce more, but those that build more effective mechanisms to transform savings into innovation and infrastructure," Amador noted.
Industrial integration as a competitive advantage
The official emphasized that North America is undergoing a period of industrial expansion in critical sectors such as semiconductors, medical devices, and advanced electronics. Thanks to its manufacturing platform and strategic location, Mexico is solidifying its position as a natural link in these global value chains.
To support this stability, the federal government relies on several financial buffers. These include record-high international reserves, a flexible credit line with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), oil hedges, and budgetary stabilization funds. Furthermore, the Mexican banking system operates with solvency indicators that exceed international standards.
However, the Finance Ministry's outlook differs from that of other institutions. The Bank of Mexico (Banxico), for instance, maintains a more conservative growth estimate of 1.1 percent.
Regarding the stock market, Amador acknowledged that access to capital remains limited for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). In response to this challenge, he noted that the recent reform to the Securities Market Law introduced a simplified issuance process. This mechanism is intended to help SMEs finance their expansion, innovation, and infrastructure with lower costs and shorter timelines, reducing their reliance on traditional bank financing.
